Hero Wars: Alliance Heroic Chest pity: about 200 days of free chests to Cleaver, and I wouldn't pay to skip it

Roughly 200 days. That's how long two free Heroic Chests a day take to reach the guaranteed Grand Prize in Hero Wars: Alliance, and the first one you get is always Cleaver. The odds of landing it sooner are 0.1% per opening, so I treat the guarantee as the plan and anything earlier as a bonus.

The New Hero guarantee is the one you'll actually feel

A New Hero drops once every 25 drops. Your first two openings are spoken for: chest one is always Thea and chest two is always Phobos.

On a young account that rhythm is the most dependable thing the chest does. A fresh name on your heroes list every couple of dozen openings costs you no luck at all.

Cleaver is the long game

A Grand Prize is guaranteed every 400th opening, and Thea and Phobos don't count towards that total. Cleaver is always the first Grand Prize you receive, which makes 400 chests your ceiling on him.

Can he come sooner? Yes. A 0.1% chance is one in a thousand per opening, though, so I wouldn't budget around it, and I'd be wary of anyone telling you one more chest might do it.

Soul Coins are a Grand Prize that can repeat without limit. A Skin+ for a given hero only becomes possible once that hero is in your collection.

What free openings are worth in days

You get one free Heroic Chest per in-game day, and the day starts at 05:00 your time. On top of that sits an ad opening, available no more than once every 24 hours. Take it within 30 minutes of the prompt appearing.

Do the sums. Two a day from a fresh account means a New Hero roughly every 12 to 13 days, so call it roughly fortnightly with the ad. Free-only, one a day, stretches that to about 25 days. The Grand Prize guarantee is about 200 days away with both chests and nearer 400 on the free one alone.

Slow. Also free, and the only price is one video a day.

Don't pay for pity

My default: take both free chests daily and keep emeralds out of the chest. Before spending any, check the in-game shop and the events calendar. If there's no deal on Heroic Chests, hold.

Even with one running I wouldn't buy my way to Cleaver. Check where he sits on the tier list first. If you're not chasing him for a specific reason, free chests will bring him round without costing a single emerald.

There is one time when paid openings make sense: you're building a team around one faction. Picking a faction on the Selected Faction screen redistributes the drop weights, so heroes from that faction carry twice the weight of everyone else. Set that before you open a single paid chest.

What the chest pays once a hero is finished

Once you hold enough Soul Stones to fully evolve a hero, the chest pays out something else. Sparks of Power drop while the Gift of the Elements is still incomplete. Rune Stones take over when the Gift is fully upgraded. Skin Stones follow once the Gift and the Glyphs are both fully upgraded, under the same Soul Stone condition.

That sequence tells you where a hero stands: Skin Stones mean the Soul Stones, Gift and Glyphs are all done. Put your effort into heroes you haven't finished, such as the ones you'll lean on in the Arena.

Open today's free chest, then keep an eye out for the ad prompt.